On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not by Robert A Burton

Author:Robert A Burton [Burton, Robert A]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Science, Cognitive Science
ISBN: 9781429926119
Publisher: Macmillan
Published: 2008-02-05T06:00:00+00:00

HOW THE UNCONSCIOUS decides what should be delivered into consciousness is a matter of fierce debate. We needn’t know the exact mechanism to realize that the decision must include a probability calculation. Let’s go back to the computer example. In order to avoid getting a report of all possible compounds considered as potential drug candidates, you have programmed in a probability equation that only sends high-likelihood drugs into awareness (onto the monitor screen). This is the same process that neural networks use for pattern recognition.

Imagine teaching your young daughter the alphabet. You and Big Bird take turns patiently repeating the letter A while pointing to it in various formats—on a cube, a blackboard, a coloring book, and so on. When your daughter looks at an A for the first time, she might see an H. After repeated trials and your reinforcement of correct responses, these alternative interpretations no longer rise into consciousness. In saying that your daughter has learned to recognize an A, you are also saying that her unconscious mind can accurately calculate the odds of the image being an A versus an H or a tent with an arrow through it. The projection of the correctness of A into consciousness and the simultaneous rejection of other possibilities is analogous to the computer equation that restricted displayed answers to those with a reasonable probability of being correct.

To sense how this calculation evolves into the feeling of knowing, take a look at the following figure and try to decide if it is an A or an H.

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